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Why Social Networks will never scale for marketing....(primates on facebook)

Wednesday, March 4, 2009 by Chris Baggott
primates on facebook

In the email business we talk a lot about 'Capacity'.  What we are talking about is someone's capacity for email relationships generally and more specifically, "Commercial Email Relationships".   According to a recent study from Merkle that capacity is 10.   Basically, this means that if you want to get into my inbox and have a relationship with me, you better be one of the first 10, or displace someone who's already there.

Moving on to blogging, the most recent data is from eMarketer (about 15 months old) tells us that people have the capacity to follow about 2 blogs regularly.  Proof positive that for most corporate blogging strategies, measureing success based on RSS feeds or regular readership is the wrong metric.

Today I read a great study from the Economist called Primates on Facebook, talking about human's capacity on facebook.   There is a primate theory they go into and it's worth reading the article, but the reall data tell us what we need to know. 

"....the average number of “friends” in a Facebook network is 120, consistent with Dr Dunbar’s hypothesis, and that women tend to have somewhat more than men. But the range is large, and some people have networks numbering more than 500...."

"Thus an average man—one with 120 friends—generally responds to the postings of only seven of those friends by leaving comments on the posting individual’s photos, status messages or “wall”. An average woman is slightly more sociable, responding to ten. When it comes to two-way communication such as e-mails or chats, the average man interacts with only four people and the average woman with six. Among those Facebook users with 500 friends, these numbers are somewhat higher, but not hugely so. Men leave comments for 17 friends, women for 26. Men communicate with ten, women with 16."

"Put differently, people who are members of online social networks are not so much “networking” as they are “broadcasting their lives to an outer tier of acquaintances who aren’t necessarily inside the Dunbar circle,” says Lee Rainie, the director of the Pew Internet & American Life Project, a polling organisation. Humans may be advertising themselves more efficiently. But they still have the same small circles of intimacy as ever."

My point to all this is that in spite of anicdotal stories of limited success in social network marketing, It's never going to be meaningful.  People have too little capacity.  They are not there for Commercial relationships anyway and if they are, once they joing the (BMW, Zappos, Dell, Comcast) group...they don't have any room to join yours.

Again, I'm talking about meaningful....as in scale that makes a significant impact on your business.   There are 3 million searches on Google a month by people looking to buy toasters.   Where is the best use of your time?   Hoping to get 100 people to join your toaster group....or building a blogging strategy to target and engage a big percentage of those people expressing an intent to buy toasters.






Comments for Why Social Networks will never scale for marketing....(primates on facebook)

Thursday, March 5, 2009 by Jeb:
Chris, interesting post and for the most part I agree. It seems to me that Twitter breaks this rule since it allows a user to quickly review and engage in a large number of conversations with relative ease and speed. In terms of marketing I think Twitter is the first meaningful social media tool that I have seen. Blogs are great SEO bait but the Website has to do the selling right? But on Twitter you can follow someone you are considering working with, get to know them, engage in a conversation and then take the next step. With much greater ease than email. Obviously search is king in terms of selling stuff. But for a service company, or even a product company like Zappos that is as much about service as product, then I think having the accessibility via Twitter for thousands upon thousands to follow can be a remarkably effective way to create and maintain brand loyalty. Curious what your thoughts are on how Twitter might be different than the traditional social networks you described. On a side note I just hired a video freelancer via Twitter and have started many new relationships via the service. Ones that I would expect at some point to bear fruit one way or another.
Thursday, March 5, 2009 by Chris Baggott:
Thanks for the comment Jeb. Aaron Wall had a great post yesterday talking about this very thing. My favorite quote from the comments: "If you have a big company with lots of human capital to waste then developing a fake connection between customers and then brand might not be a bad idea. Go Skittles! But if you are a small business looking to grow I think the effort needed to see any real return on Twitter would be better spent building out your own site." This is about effort vs. reward. I love social networks for hiring so your example is perfect. But solving problems? Not so sure. Selling? nothing beats search. Job one for every organization on the planet has to be selling right? I had a great conversation with a guy from the Agency that runs Dells social program. Dell can brag that they have 25,000 twitter followers but they still missed their number by millions of dollars last quarter. There are over 20,000,000 searches a month around laptops. Imagine if they would apply their efforts to where the customers are vs. all the energy they are expending on the fringes of social media. You can expect to see some strategy changes with a lot of these companies. Comcast may have it right. One guy, no investment, good PR. But it doesn't change a thing with 50% of the time your pay per view movie won't serve :-)
Thursday, March 5, 2009 by Jeb:
Chris, thanks for the response. I think it really comes down to what you are selling. With my company I will spend many hours courting a valuable client since the contract amount justifies the expense. Some of my clients have taken years to convert into paying customers. I just remain accessible, follow up and continue the conversation knowing that it will most likely bear fruit down the road. My pricing allows me to do this. With a product company selling $20 whatevers then they can't spend that much on acquisition. They need to focus on efficient conversion. So I think we are talking about two different companies. One that has to closely watch it's acquisition cost (margin driven product company like Dell) and one sells something that requires a relationship and trust before any money changes hands (a services company like Small Box or Compendium). Both our companies show up great for their specific industry searches but that isn't enough, it's just the beginning. We have to be accessible across multiple social media platforms. This is where Twitter is fairly unique since it allows many people to share information and knowledge with relative ease and speed. Many more potential customers know who I am from my involvement in Twitter. Much more than my involvement in Facebook or other social networking sites.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009 by Todd Greenwood:
Nice summary. A question: To your knowledge, has there ever been any quantitative study that links online purchase behavior to frequency and reach of one's online social network? Thanks. Todd Greenwood todd@keywordwizards.com http://www.keywordwizards.com

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